Key Assumptions and Implications
Major assumptions underlying the projections and selected implications include:
• U.S. and world economic growth reflect a recovery from the global financial crisis and
economic recession, with a transition back to steady economic gains.
• Global economic growth is assumed to rebound to a 3.3-percent average growth rate for
2010-19. A resumption of high growth rates in emerging market countries, such as China
and India, and a return to strong growth in other developing countries and countries of the
former Soviet Union underpin this macroeconomic result.
• The U.S. economy resumes growth at 2.5 percent in 2010 and 3.2 percent in 2011,
followed by an average rate of 2.7 percent over the remainder of the projection period.
With slower growth in the United States than in the world economy, the U.S. share of
global gross domestic product (GDP) falls from about 27 percent currently to 25 percent at
the end of the projection period.
• The return to broad-based, steady global economic growth supports longer term gains in
world food demand, global agricultural trade, and U.S. agricultural exports. Economic
growth in developing countries is especially important because food consumption and feed
use are particularly responsive to income growth in those countries, with movement away
from staple foods and increased diversification of diets.
• Growth in export demand contributes to gains in farm cash receipts and rising farm
incomes after 2009.
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